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CTV vs. linear TV: The decision framework for today's media planner
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Connected TV (CTV) budgets are under more pressure than ever—and most advertisers don't realize it yet.
CTV has become one of the fastest-growing channels for video ad spend, and has recently outpaced other digital ads, social media and retail media. As advertisers continue shifting budgets from linear TV into connected TV advertising, the mechanics behind CTV ad spend have fundamentally changed. Unlike linear TV, where reach and frequency were relatively centralized and predictable, today’s CTV budgets are dispersed across a growing number of streaming platforms.
This cosmic rise of subscription-based and ad-supported streaming has created a “platform war” for both advertisers and consumers: There’s more opportunity than ever for brands to get in front of people, but those same people are constantly switching between platforms, subscribing and unsubscribing to manage costs—especially as tariff and recessionary fears grow. Reaching a stable and valuable audience isn’t as simple as it once was.
The result? Your CTV ad spend is working harder for less, chasing viewers who switch platforms faster than any single buy can follow.
It’s clear that the desire for streaming content is not slowing down. eMarketer forecasted that by 2030, there will be 128.4 million CTV households in the US, which will represent 93.8% of the population. The issue for advertisers, however, isn’t eyeballs on the screen—it’s the audience fragmentation that comes with an almost overwhelming amount of choice.
According to Deloitte, the average number of SVOD services (subscription video on demand) per household in 2026 is four, and it would not be shocking if this number continued to increase. “That freedom to access content everywhere is another painful experience of finding where it is or figuring out the many services you have to subscribe to get the content you want,” Jennifer Kent, Vice President of Research at market intelligence firm Park Associates said in Adweek.
This dynamic has pushed consumers to be more selective, frequently subscribing and unsubscribing from services depending on content offerings and price points. “While the fragmentation of the streaming ecosystem may have led 39% of streaming subscribers to cancel a service in the last six months, 55% have also joined new ones,” said Frankie Karr at MNTN research.
The volatility doesn't end there, though: According to new research from Epsilon, 73% of people cancel their streaming subscriptions when the price increases too much, so it's unsurprising that almost 40% of viewers have canceled a subscription in the last six months. Add on the fact that 59% of consumers are willing to cancel a subscription after watching their desired content, and advertisers face quite a predicament when trying to get the most out of their CTV ad spend.
It doesn’t have to be all prime-time drama, though. Advertisers best poised to outsmart and “win” the platform war have the tech to support meaningful, personalized campaigns and can reach their consumers whenever, and on whichever, platform they choose.
Brands might be tempted to ramp up connected TV budgets and impressions across platforms in hopes of reaching the right people, but experts caution that approach. Advertisers and consumers alike know CTV has a frequency problem—seeing that same ad multiple times during one show is not only frustrating to consumers but wasteful for brands.
Instead, they suggest shifting to a more holistic approach that focuses on the efficacy of your data and identity resolution. Effective CTV budget planning for advertisers depends on the ability to:
Lindsay Woods, Director of Product Management, Media at Epsilon, believes a worth-while identity solution should give brands the ability to connect online and offline identifiers to see a person's full digital footprint across channels, ultimately removing blind spots across inventory, channels and devices. Woods explains Epsilon's COREid, an industry-leading solution, "can help advertisers understand exactly how their audience is behaving and see their entire path to conversion. This includes creative messaging across channels, website visits, newsletter signups, online and offline purchases…you name it.”
At the end of the day, Woods said it’s not about spending more and hoping something sticks—it’s about knowing the customer and getting precise and prescriptive with your CTV audience targeting.
When assessing media buys, efficiency should be prioritized over straightforward cost metrics. While a metric like CPM (cost per mille) remains a common go-to for advertisers, it doesn’t tell the full story. Advertisers may compare CPMs to find the best value, but they need to start questioning what they’re really getting from that perceived value. Consumers are constantly switching between platforms and subscriptions. Paying a low CPM and buying direct on an array of platforms might seem like a sure-fire way to reach your customer, but there’s a strong chance you're reaching the same people over and over (or they’re already gone). The result? The desirable CPM likely isn’t reaching unique and in-market people.
“We’re seeing advertisers get a lot more sophisticated with their audience strategies for CTV in addition to focusing on efficiency,” says Woods.
Audience-based strategies can be more expensive and have a higher CPM, but when serving CTV ads on a platform that has strong identity, but it’s far more efficient and worthwhile in the long run.
“The key is ensuring your budget is being used to reach unique individuals, not someone you’ve already messaged before—maybe even multiple times before,” says Karissa VanHooser, Senior Director of Product Marketing at Epsilon. “Try thinking of it as cost per unique individual reached within your target audience instead. That will help you avoid wasting budget on over frequency.”
It goes without saying that CTV is a vital part of the advertising mix, but a broader, more omnichannel approach can enhance brand impact. Integrating other forms of video like online video (OLV) can complement CTV efforts instead of competing against it. Experts say expanding an omnichannel digital strategy will help amplify a brand's message at the right time and place to an interested consumer—and measure collective impact.
New research from Epsilon found that while the majority of people still use the TV as their primary way of watching content, the younger the respondent, the more likely they are to regularly use devices other than a TV. Half of Gen Z indicated they regularly use their cell phone to watch shows, movie, sports or news. It's as important as ever to think across channels and devices to reach people where they're at.
A fragmented approach ultimately leads to fragmented measurement and performance. Woods said having a connected, comprehensive cross-channel strategy is a sure-fire way to reach customers and understand the actions they take—even if it’s not when they’re watching TV. Or maybe they are watching TV, but it's just not on their TV.
“At the end of the day, precise targeting, suppressing existing buyers and being smart about incorporating additional channels into the mix are what really reinforces that CTV messaging,” Woods says.
Leveraging the new opportunities CTV provides requires innovation and adaptability—qualities that will ultimately determine success of brands and advertisers as the industry continues to change. Experts say the only way to keep up with people as they shift between streaming platforms and subscription tiers is to have persistent and accurate identity resolution. When brands nail down a better understanding of their audience, they can spend more strategically, prioritize efficiency and embrace a multi-channel approach.
Epsilon CTV is here to help you identify and reach in-market viewers at scale—no matter where they’re watching. Learn more about how you can achieve the vast reach of linear TV with the impact, precision and control of a digital channel.
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