£17.9B expected consumer spend this Golden Quarter, Epsilon research shows

£17.9bn expected consumer spend this Golden Quarter will prove harder for marketers to win, Epsilon research shows

• £334 budgeted per person on gifts & personal purchases from Black Friday to January sales
• 71% plan to cut back on non-essentials and 63% delay bigger purchases
• Just 8% of marketers to prioritise brand investment

6 August 2026 – UK consumers are planning to spend £17.9bn on gifts and personal purchases, the equivalent of £334 each on average*, during the peak shopping season between Black Friday in October and the post-Christmas sales in January. But for brand marketers entering the ‘Golden Quarter’ with high expectations and increased budgets, this needs to be tempered with consumers planning to cut back and switch in order to save money.

A new report published today by Epsilon, a global leader in data and identity, investigates the gap between consumer intent and marketer expectations, based on a survey of 2,000 UK adults and 200 marketers.

Despite UK ad spend predicted to pass £50bn this year, growing at roughly seven times the pace of GDP, audiences are not growing at the same pace, according to the ‘Advertising under Pressure: into the Golden Quarter and beyond’ report. This is creating a highly competitive media landscape in which it’s far harder for marketers to get in front of the right audiences, who are themselves making much more considered purchases.

Key report findings

1. The cautious consumer – cost-of-living pressures mean that shoppers are curating spend rather than cutting back completely. 71% are planning to cut back on non-essentials, while 68% look for lower prices and 63% delay bigger purchases.
2. Treats are protected – while they are being more selective, shoppers are protecting what’s important to them. Almost half (48%) will still indulge in the occasional treat, while more than one in three will prioritise quality over quantity.
3. Brand curious – consumers also see cost pressures as an opportunity to switch up and try something new this Golden Quarter. Groceries (60%) are proving to be an unlikely popular choice compared to other categories including fashion, homeware, beauty and electronics. Consistently good prices (47%), trust in a brand (42%), and rewards (35%) are reasons cited for staying loyal to brands.
4. Broader discovery – consumers spread discovery across search engines, retailer sites, in-store, social media and price comparison sites. Despite the breadth, 82% of marketers are further consolidating spend into the major platforms, a trend which correlated with 55% of marketers who feel platforms give too little data for cross-channel campaigns.
5. Retailer trust – just over half (56%) of consumers feel more confident in a product promoted by a retailer they shop at. But it’s younger generations, Gen Z and Millenials, who have grown up online with dupes and products of questionable provenance, that value a retailer’s online and instore presence most highly.

“It’s never been more important for brands to show up consistently,” comments Holly Williams, VP Client Services & Growth at Epsilon. “There’s a risk that many see the peak buying season as a series of individual events, with Black Friday, Amazon Prime Day and so on as fixed dates in the calendar. But with UK audiences remaining flat, it’s more important than ever to maintain a presence across the whole buying period to build familiarity and trust.”

Despite timely brand-building opportunities the Golden Quarter presents, just 8% of marketers plan to prioritise brand investment over performance, with 79% pushing harder into driving sales. Among smaller, challenger brands, this figure is even higher with 90% planning to shift budget into performance.

“With shoppers saying they plan to switch up, defer purchases and focus on buying quality over quantity, the 8% investing in their brands may well emerge this year’s peak season winners.”

*Based on the UK's 53.6 million adults.

Methodology

The consumer research was conducted by Censuswide among 2,000 nationally representative UK adults aged 18 and over, between 12 and 15 June 2026. Findings are weighted to be representative of the UK adult population.

The marketer research was also conducted by Censuswide among 200 UK marketing decision-makers aged 21 and over, all of whom control £500,000 or more of annual marketing budget at direct-to-consumer brands with a minimum turnover of £5 million. Fieldwork ran between 12 and 25 June 2026.